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Perfect Storm

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First Period of National Party Rule

'White Domination' Apartheid

The National Party Government DF Malan (1948 – 54) codified longstanding segregation laws into rigid apartheid. Malan’s successor, JG Strijdom (1954 –58), continued to entrench apartheid and campaigned for the re-establishment of a Republic. He unashamedly proclaimed that his policy was ‘Baasskap’ (white domination).

Parliament adopted core apartheid legislation, including the Population Registration Act and the Group Areas Act, and disenfranchised Coloured voters.

The period also witnessed growing resistance to apartheid with the adoption of the Freedom Charter, the Treason Trials and the establishment of the Pan Africanist Congress.

Second Period of National Party Rule

'Separate Development' Apartheid

Prime minister HF Verwoerd (1958 -19660,) implemented ‘separate development’ in terms of which South Africa’s 10 ‘black ethnic groups’ would progress to “independence” in arbitrarily designated ‘homelands’ comprising only 13,7% of South Africa.

More than 3 million people were forcibly removed from their homes.
Rigid segregation continued and pass laws severely restricted freedom of movement.

Separate development did not address the political rights of the growing black majority in the so-called white areas – or those of the Coloured and Indian minorities.

After HF Verwoerd’s assassination on 6 September 1966 BJ Vorster became prime minister. He continued to implement separate development until September 1978 when he was forced to resign following the ‘information scandal’.

Third Period of National Party Rule

PW Botha's Attempts to Reform Apartheid

PW Botha (1978 – 1989) realised that separate development could not solve all South Africa’s problems because it did not address the political rights of coloured and Asian South Africans and because six of the black homelands had refused to accept independence. Botha embarked on a policy of reform that repealed more than 100 apartheid laws – including the hated pass laws.

He adopted the 1983 “Tricameral Constitution” which brought Coloureds and Asians into a Three-Chamber Parliament in which they could control matters affecting their own communities. However, the system enjoyed little support from Coloureds and Asians and left White South Africans in effective control of most decisions.

The Perfect Storm

The UDF and Countrywide Insurrection

PW Botha’s reforms ignited revolutionary expectations that led to the establishment of the United Democratic Front – a broad coalition of churches, trade unions and NGOs opposed to the government.

The UDF rejected PW Botha’s reforms and demanded one-man, one-vote elections. Violent protests flared up in many parts of South Africa with a view to making the country ‘ungovernable’;

In 1985 and 1986 the government declared draconian states of emergency: more than 26 000 people were detained without trial; restrictions were placed on local and international TV and press reporting; and reform measures came to a grinding halt.

The Perfect Storm

The Rubicon Speech, Sanctions and Economic Crisis

On 15 August 1985, faced with growing condemnation, PW Botha made the ‘Rubicon Speech’ which failed entirely to meet expectations that he would announce radical changes.

The government feared that ‘one man, one vote’ would create an existential crisis:

It would end the right of Afrikaners and Whites to self-determination;
The SACP – backed by the Soviet Union – would have huge influence;
South Africa might follow most decolonised African states into political chaos, conflict, corruption, and economic decline

The Rubicon Speech led to the adoption of stricter sanctions; worldwide anti-apartheid demonstrations; the collapse of the rand, and the refusal of international banks to renew loans to South Africa.

The Perfect Storm

Escalating Conflict with Soviet-Backed Forces in Angola/Namibia

The crisis in South Africa was compounded by a growing soviet threat in Namibia/Angola.

There were increasing demands for Namibian independence under UN supervision;
There was a large build-up of Soviet supported forces in Angola which led to a major Angolan offensive in October 1987 to capture Jamba – the capital of the UNITA insurgent movement;
The offensive resulted in large-scale battles of the Lomba river and Cuito Cuanavale between Soviet and Cuban supported Angolan forces on the one side and the SADS and UNITA on the other.;
The failure of the offensive may have been a major factor in preparing the way to the tripartite accord in 1988.

Glimmers of Hope

Social and Economic Change

Despite the desperate situation in 1985–1986, high economic growth during the 1960s and 1970s had resulted in:

An increase in the Black share of personal income from 28% in 1970 to almost 50% in 1994;
The legalisation of Black trade unions;
An increase in Black matric passes from 15 000 in 1980 to over 200 000 in 1994;
A 64% majority of Black, Coloured, and Indian students at South African universities by 1994.

At the same time, a whole generation of Afrikaners had migrated to the middle class. They were going to university, were travelling overseas, and felt increasingly uncomfortable with apartheid.

Glimmers of Hope

Informal Talks with the ANC

By 1985 both Nelson Mandela and the PW Botha government had reached the conclusion that there would not be a revolutionary or military solution to the problems of the country: there would have to be negotiations.

Nelson Mandela opened a line of communication to the PW Botha government. In the subsequent three years he had more than 100 meetings with government leaders.

There were also talks between the ANC and South African business leaders and academics:

During 1985, the ANC met with delegations of academics, businessmen and the opposition progressive federal party in Lusaka.
In September 1987, Afrikaner academics, business people and journalists met with the ANC in Dakar.

Glimmers of Hope

The Tripartite Accord and Namibian Independence

The dire military situation on the Angolan/Namibian border – that had reached a critical point at the end of 1987 – was defused by the Tripartite Accord between South Africa, Angola and Cuba in December 1988. In terms of the agreement:

Cuban forces would be withdrawn from Angola; and
South Africa would agree to the implementation of the United Nations independence plan for Namibia.

Namibian independence:

Independence elections were held between 7 – 11 November 1989;
SWAPO – the main opposition movement – won the elections with 57% of the vote;
Namibia became independent on 21 March 1990 with a democratic and inclusive constitution.

The New Dawn

FW de Klerk is Elected Leader of the National Party

In January 1989, President PW Botha suffered a serious stroke. On 2 February 1989 he informed the National Party that he had decided to step down as leader of the party.

The caucus decided to elect a new leader immediately. On the third ballot, FW de Klerk was elected leader against Barend du Plessis by only eight votes.

On 6 February 1989 in his first speech to parliament as leader of the National Party said that “our goal is a new South Africa; a totally changed South Africa; a South Africa which has rid itself of the antagonism of the past; a South Africa free of domination or oppression in whatever form…”