On 15 August 1985, faced with growing national and international outrage, State President PW Botha made the ‘Rubicon Speech’, which failed entirely to meet expectations that he would announce far-reaching changes – including the release of Nelson Mandela. Instead, he said that he had no intention of allowing white South Africans to commit national suicide.

The government believed that ‘one man, one vote’ would create an existential crisis for white South Africans:

• It would end the right of Afrikaners and whites to nationhood and self-determination.
• The South African Communist Party (SACP) – backed by the Soviet Union – would have huge influence.
• South Africa might follow the example of most decolonised African states into political chaos, conflict, corruption, and economic decline.

The Rubicon Speech, countrywide violence, and the draconian state of emergency resulted in a perception of impending catastrophe. This quickly led to:

• the adoption of stricter sanctions by the United States and the European Union;
• worldwide anti-apartheid demonstrations;
• a dramatic devaluation of the South African Rand (ZAR); and
• the refusal of international banks to renew loans to South Africa.

An attempt in February 1986 by the Commonwealth Eminent Persons Group to resolve the crisis ended in failure when, on 19 May, the South African Defence Force (SADF) attacked three neighbouring countries during the group’s visit.